Feasibility Study & Business Plan
Cedar
& Sail
A coastal bistro concept for the Marsa Bay Promenade
Prepared by
Hassan Akkad
FP&A & Finance Transformation Specialist
10-year projection · September 2026
Hassan Akkad
FP&A & Finance Transformation Specialist10-year projection · September 2026
Illustrative mock-up — all figures are fictional
Contents
What this study covers
A full investment appraisal: demand and cost assumptions, a ten-year financial model, the three statements, profitability KPIs and a discounted cash flow valuation.
01Executive SummaryThe concept, the ask, and the headline returns03
02Revenue AssumptionsSeating zones, average check, capacity ramp04
03Cost & Capex AssumptionsPayroll, occupancy, fit-out and pre-opening05
04Revenue ProjectionTen-year build by seating zone06
05Income Statement & Break-evenP&L, accumulated result, break-even year07
06Balance Sheet & Cash FlowPosition, liquidity and cash build-up08
07Profitability KPIsMargins, returns and growth ratios09
08Valuation — FCFF, NPV, IRR & PaybackWACC build-up, discounted cash flow, disclaimer10
10 yrs
Projection horizon
$650K
Total funding required
21.0%
Discount rate (WACC)
USD
Reporting currency
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01 · Executive Summary
An 80-cover coastal bistro with a three-year route to full return
$650K
Total funding required
3y 4m
Payback period
35.8%
IRR (10-year)
$436K
NPV at 21% WACC
Findings
- Open-fire coastal seafood dining on the Marsa Bay Promenade, sitting between casual dining and a destination evening venue.
- 80 covers across three zones — terrace, indoor and lounge bar — at a blended average check of $38.
- Year zero is a six-month partial opening; the operation turns profitable in year two and clears accumulated losses in year three.
- Gross margin settles at 70%, net margin peaks at 15% in year five before easing as rent escalates.
- The $650K facility is sufficient throughout — no additional funding round is modelled.
Revenue and net result, years 0–10
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02 · Module Assumptions
Revenue assumptions
Demand is modelled bottom-up from covers: seats × turnover × average check, across three zones with distinct behaviour. Capacity utilisation opens at 20% and matures at 96%.
| Seating zone | Seats | Avg. check | Peak turnover | Share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrace (open air) | 28 | $42 | 2.2× | 48% |
| Indoor dining room | 40 | $38 | 1.8× | 40% |
| Lounge bar | 12 | $29 | 1.4× | 12% |
| Blended / total | 80 | $38 | 1.9× | 100% |
Operating basis
Trading days per year340
Full-capacity revenue$2.05M
Year 0 trading months6
Price inflation from yr 44% p.a.
Capacity utilisation ramp
Revenue mix by zone
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03 · Module Assumptions
Cost & capital expenditure assumptions
Payroll inflates 10% every two years, rent 5% annually. Marketing starts at 8% of revenue and tapers to 4% once the venue is established.
Payroll — 30 positions
| Function | No. | Monthly |
|---|---|---|
| Head & sous chef | 2 | $5,600 |
| Management & supervisors | 3 | $5,000 |
| Servers & hostess | 12 | $8,400 |
| Kitchen & stewarding | 10 | $6,800 |
| Bar & accounting | 3 | $2,200 |
| Total | 30 | $28,000 |
$336,000 per year at full staffing; year 0 carries 8 months including pre-opening training.
Capital expenditure
| Item | Cost | Life |
|---|---|---|
| Kitchen equipment | $120,000 | 8 yrs |
| Furniture & fit-out | $95,000 | 10 yrs |
| POS, IT & security | $25,000 | 5 yrs |
| Opening capex | $240,000 | — |
| Equipment renewal — yr 5 | $60,000 | 8 yrs |
| Refurbishment — yr 8 | $45,000 | 7 yrs |
| Lifetime capex | $345,000 | — |
Pre-opening and licensing of $45,000 is expensed in year 0, not capitalised.
Cost structure at maturity (year 5, % of revenue)
$240K
Opening capex
$45K
Pre-opening & licensing
$365K
Working capital reserve
30%
Food & beverage cost ratio
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04 · Financial Projection
Revenue build, years 0–10
Revenue climbs steeply through year three as the venue establishes, then flattens into low single-digit growth carried by price rather than volume.
| Revenue by zone | Yr 02026 | Yr 12027 | Yr 22028 | Yr 32029 | Yr 52031 | Yr 72033 | Yr 102036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrace | $196,800 | $504,000 | $662,400 | $748,800 | $859,200 | $907,200 | $948,480 |
| Indoor dining | $164,000 | $420,000 | $552,000 | $624,000 | $716,000 | $756,000 | $790,400 |
| Lounge bar | $49,200 | $126,000 | $165,600 | $187,200 | $214,800 | $226,800 | $237,120 |
| Total revenue | $410,000 | $1,050,000 | $1,380,000 | $1,560,000 | $1,790,000 | $1,890,000 | $1,976,000 |
| Growth | — | 156% | 31% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
Revenue by zone with total trend
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05 · Financial Projection
Income statement & break-even
First profitable year is year two. Accumulated losses of $295,550 are cleared during year three, which is the true break-even point for the investor.
| Yr 0 | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 5 | Yr 7 | Yr 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 410,000 | 1,050,000 | 1,380,000 | 1,560,000 | 1,790,000 | 1,890,000 | 1,976,000 |
| Cost of sales | 131,200 | 336,000 | 414,000 | 468,000 | 537,000 | 567,000 | 592,800 |
| Gross profit | 278,800 | 714,000 | 966,000 | 1,092,000 | 1,253,000 | 1,323,000 | 1,383,200 |
| Operating expenses | 524,850 | 719,250 | 809,550 | 835,373 | 895,841 | 974,543 | 1,120,852 |
| Operating profit | (246,050) | (5,250) | 156,450 | 256,627 | 357,159 | 348,457 | 262,348 |
| Depreciation | 14,750 | 29,500 | 29,500 | 29,500 | 32,000 | 32,000 | 13,929 |
| Profit before tax | (260,800) | (34,750) | 126,950 | 227,127 | 325,159 | 316,457 | 248,419 |
| Tax (17%) | — | — | — | 9,950 | 55,277 | 53,798 | 42,231 |
| Net profit | (260,800) | (34,750) | 126,950 | 217,177 | 269,882 | 262,659 | 206,188 |
| Accumulated result | (260,800) | (295,550) | (168,600) | 48,577 | 539,404 | 1,054,003 | 1,741,807 |
Year 2
First profitable year
Year 3
Accumulated losses cleared
$295.5K
Peak accumulated loss
Tax losses from years 0–1 are carried forward, which is why year 2 pays no tax and year 3 is only partly taxed.
Net profit vs accumulated result
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06 · Financial Projection
Balance sheet & cash flow
The business is modelled debt-free and funded entirely by the $650,000 paid capital. Cash dips to $158K at the end of year one — the tightest point — then compounds.
Balance sheet
| Yr 0 | Yr 1 | Yr 3 | Yr 5 | Yr 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net fixed assets | 225,250 | 195,750 | 136,750 | 135,250 | 55,463 |
| Inventory & receivables | 11,161 | 28,583 | 41,167 | 47,236 | 52,144 |
| Cash | 163,722 | 158,117 | 559,660 | 1,051,668 | 2,333,600 |
| Total assets | 400,133 | 382,450 | 737,577 | 1,234,154 | 2,441,207 |
| Payables | 10,933 | 28,000 | 39,000 | 44,750 | 49,400 |
| Paid capital | 650,000 | 650,000 | 650,000 | 650,000 | 650,000 |
| Retained earnings | (260,800) | (295,550) | 48,577 | 539,404 | 1,741,807 |
| Equity & liabilities | 400,133 | 382,450 | 737,577 | 1,234,154 | 2,441,207 |
Cash flow
| Yr 0 | Yr 1 | Yr 3 | Yr 5 | Yr 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit | (260,800) | (34,750) | 217,177 | 269,882 | 206,188 |
| Add: depreciation | 14,750 | 29,500 | 29,500 | 32,000 | 13,929 |
| Working capital movement | (228) | (355) | (250) | (139) | (26) |
| Operating cash flow | (246,278) | (5,605) | 246,427 | 301,743 | 220,091 |
| Investing — capex | (240,000) | — | — | (60,000) | — |
| Financing — paid capital | 650,000 | — | — | — | — |
| Movement in cash | 163,722 | (5,605) | 246,427 | 241,743 | 220,091 |
| Closing cash | 163,722 | 158,117 | 559,660 | 1,051,668 | 2,333,600 |
Closing cash balance
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07 · Key Performance Indicators
Profitability & returns
Gross margin is stable at 70%. Returns on equity peak in year three at 31% and then normalise as retained earnings build the equity base.
Margin trend, years 0–10
| Ratio | Yr 1 | Yr 3 | Yr 5 | Yr 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 156% | 13% | 6% | 1% |
| Gross margin | 68% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Operating margin | (0%) | 16% | 20% | 13% |
| Net margin | (3%) | 14% | 15% | 10% |
| Return on assets | (9%) | 29% | 22% | 8% |
| Return on equity | (10%) | 31% | 23% | 9% |
| Current ratio | 6.7 | 15.4 | 24.6 | 48.3 |
| Debt-to-equity | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
- Margins hold; the decline in returns after year five reflects a growing equity base, not weaker trading.
- Liquidity builds well beyond operating need — surplus cash is a distribution or expansion decision.
70%
Gross margin at maturity
15%
Peak net margin (yr 5)
31%
Peak return on equity (yr 3)
Year 2
First profitable year
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08 · Valuation
Free cash flow, NPV, IRR & payback
Free cash flow is discounted at a 21% cost of equity. The project is value-accretive on every horizon tested.
Discount rate build-up
Risk-free rate4.0%
Beta × market premium (1.15 × 6.0%)6.9%
Country risk premium4.0%
Size premium3.0%
Start-up risk premium3.0%
Cost of equity = WACC21.0%
Valuation by horizon
| 5 yrs | 7 yrs | 10 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terminal value | 1,297,778 | 1,581,515 | 1,181,541 |
| NPV | 464,440 | 548,577 | 435,634 |
| IRR | 42.1% | 40.3% | 35.8% |
Payback on free cash flow3 yrs 4 mths
Terminal growth 2.0% · effective tax 17% · no debt modelled.
Discounted free cash flow & cumulative position
Disclaimer. An illustrative mock-up demonstrating deliverable format and method. The business and every figure shown are fictional. Projections are modelled assumptions, not actuals, and are not investment advice — any comparable project needs a site-specific study and independent legal, tax and market review before capital is committed.
Prepared by Hassan Akkad · HA Business Advisory
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